I was thinking the other day about how bad the 6th edition vehicle damage changes hurt my poor Wave Serpents. Unfortunately the addition of hull points to the probability calculations takes you from Stats 101 to Stats 102. The application of Excel and a few binomial calculations later, I think I've got some equations to compare 5th and 6th edition vehicle survivability.
I wish I retained more knowledge from my college statistics course, but I'm pretty sure the numbers are close enough for Govt' work.
All the calculations here are based on the chances of getting a vehicle kill with 5 hits. I had to state the probabilities this way to account for the cumulative effects of hull-point attrition.
First up is the Wave Serpent. These number account for both the energy fields and jink save.
Probability to Kill a Wave Serpent in 5 Hits
As you can see the wave serpent maintains fairly close survivability between 5th and 6th. Eldar's situation may be less dire than I assumed.
I then decided to take a look at the Rhino and Land Raider to see how they both fared in 6th.
Probability to Kill a Rhino in 5 Hits
Probability to kill Chimera From the Front in 5 Hits
Probability to kill a Vindicator From the Front in 5 Hits
Probability to Kill a Land Raider in 5 Hits
You'll notice that the rhino lost a significant amount of survivability in this edition while Land Raiders stayed about the same.
Overall, you may notice that the curve for damage potential for the major strength/ap combos in the game got a lot smother. Melta doesn't present as significant a jump in combat effectiveness against armor as it used to. In fact against lighter armor, a Lascannon becomes a good choice. It looses only a little effectiveness for a major range advantage. Melta still remains the go-to weapon for dealing with AV14.
You should also consider that glances don't effect your ability to move and shoot anymore. Outright kills are usually less likely for most weapons, so most kills will be by hull points. While vehicles may die faster, they will in general be more useful while they are alive.
I worked up one more chart for you guys to look at.
Probability of Kill as Number of Hits Increases(St 7 vs Armor 11)
We've gained a much steeper curve in terms of measuring the effect of weight of fire. What this means is that that putting a few extra guns on a target will get you better results more quickly. To get an 80% chance of a kill you need about half as many guns in 6th to do the job.