Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Confirmation Bias

From Skepdic:
Confirmation bias refers to a type of selective thinking whereby one tends to notice and to look for what confirms one's beliefs, and to ignore, not look for, or undervalue the relevance of what contradicts one's beliefs.
We all suffer from this.  It's something that scientist have to correct for when they do studies.  It's not something gamers correct for on any sort of basis.  Case in point; Privateer Press vs. Games Workshop.

Most people know that GW is an evil faceless corporation, and the PP is the gods gift to gaming.  Here are some examples of how that bias plays out in the communities' reactions:

GW raises prices:  OMG GW IS EVIL AND WANTS TO STEAL ALL MY MONEY!
PP raises prices:  Have you seen the commodities prices on metal?  It's the only logical choice for Privateer to stay in business.
(Fun Fact #1: The last round of Privateer price increases where in the 10-25% range.  I can't find the exact numbers because PP has reset their forums since then).

Privateer switches to plastic:   Have you seen the commodities prices on metal?  It's the only logical choice for Privateer to stay in business.
GW switches to resin:  WHAT! THEY WANT ME TO PAY MORE FOR LESS!!  GW IS EVIL AND WANTS TO STEAL ALL MY MONEY AND EAT BABIES!
(Fun Fact #2: Plastic versions of older PP metal releases are 4 to 5 dollars more expensive.)

Privateer releases army books: You expect them to put all the units in one book?  There are like a thousand of them, this way I can only buy the ones that I need.
GW releases a new codex:  My army sucks now, and I have to buy 12 books in order to compete! GW IS EVIL AND WANTS TO STEAL ALL MY MONEY!
(Fun  Fact #3:  You still need unit cards for Privateer games if you carried you collection over from the last edition.  That would be the forth version of the faction cards yet released)

GW releases a unit that costs $90:  I can't afford to play this game anymore! GW IS EVIL AND WANTS TO STEAL ALL MY MONEY!
Privateer releases an unit that costs $90:  Wow! This model is so beautiful!, and if you can't afford it, you don't have to buy it.

PP can't supply its distributors with product:  Look how popular their game is!  They can't even get it in stock so I can buy it.
GW can't supply its distributors with product: ...umm, not sure that that has ever happened but I expect the response to be something akin to -  GW IS EVIL AND WANTS TO STEAL ALL MY MONEY!

Think about it.  Privateer gets cut slack on doing a lot of the things that GW does.  There are people who complain about privateer when they do things, just as there are people who defend GW.  But in my experience, people are much more likely to accept that GW's reasons are for malice, and that Privateer's are the results of some hard decision where the customers ultimately come first.  It's all spin and what we expect from the companies involved.

People have an opinion on the way GW operates. When they see a headline on TTGN that says GW has to raise prices, well, that's GW just being evil again.  GW isn't a perfect company.  They are just like every other public company out there.  My bias is that companies will do what ever they will do to make money.  So, when GW raises prices, they aren't my enemy; just a company trying to stay in business.  When Privateer Press raises prices they aren't my friend; just a company trying to stay in business.

Here's a little secret.  They both want to take all your money, and the better company is the one that can make you think you are getting the better deal.  Not the one that actually gives you the better deal, mind you, just the one that makes you think it's a better deal.

And you can replace Privateer with Battlefront or whomever in this argument and it still holds true.

And in conclusion: GW is evil and wants to seal all your money.

3 comments:

  1. Nice Post!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1 A-men brother!

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  2. GW still wants to eat my babies :)

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  3. Well said. I chuckle when I see folks say "THAT'S IT I'M PLAYING WARMACHINE NOW!" Oh really? Good luck expanding beyond a battle box right now.

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